INDEPTH ANALYSIS IS ISRAEL WEAPONISING UN RESOLUTION 1701 TO INVADE LEBANON?
May 5, 2024IS ISRAEL THE GREATEST THREAT TO WORLD PEACE AND SECURITY?
This indepth analysis explores whether Israel is weaponising UNSC Resolution 1701 as a pretext to invade Lebanon and in doing so drawing America and its allies into a global war against Iran, Russia and possibly China.
It is for this reason diplomats and politicians around the globe have spent that past six months travelling back and forth between Tel Aviv, Beirut, Europe and the USA in an effort to avert a global conflagration.
I interrogate the validity of Israel’s claims and scrutinise why Israel really wants to go to war with Hezbollah and whether it could actually win.
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 was passed on 11 August 2006 to end the 2nd Israel-Lebanon war.
This resolution stipulated the following:
(1) The full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah;
(2) The deployment of Lebanese army forces to Southern Lebanon;
(3) Parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces back into Israel and behind the Blue Line;
(4) Strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese Forces in the region, and
(5) The establishment of a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River which would force Hezbollah back behind the Litani River.
Watch this full report to understand the context of 1701 and how it is being WEAPONISED today by Israel to achieve its expansionist goals of creating ‘Greater Israel’.
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English Script:
Daizy Gedeon: There’s a massive threat to world peace and security right now. And that is, if Israel decides to invade Lebanon to crush Hezbollah. And it has local, regional and global players seriously concerned. Why? Because it would force the US and its allies and its opponents, Russia and China, as well as Iran, into a global war. And these are not hypothetical considerations. But in fact, Israel has been telling us for months that it is coming for Lebanon. In January, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that even if Hezbollah were to stop launching rockets unilaterally, Israel will not cease fire until it guarantees the safe return of residents of the North to their homes, through “military means”, should diplomatic efforts fail. And the “military means” Gallant referred to, became public on March 8th, as shown in this article published by ‘The Jerusalem Post’. Israel stated that it was setting a deadline of March 15th for diplomatic resolution for the ongoing clashes between its military and the Iranian backed Lebanese militia “Hezbollah”, which have been exchanging fire across Lebanon’s southern border since October the 8th. If the diplomatic solution fails, as it has, Israel said it would wage a full scale war against Lebanon. Well, March 15th has come and gone, but the threat of an Israeli invasion continues. It seems no one wants a conflict to expand into Lebanon with the American administration sending its envoy, Amos Hochstein, and its Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, on multiple missions to Beirut and Tel Aviv to avert the conflict, as have the French and the EU. As someone who lives in Beirut and has closely monitored this conflict on a daily basis, to say I find the situation extremely concerning would be an understatement, particularly after witnessing Israel’s inhumane savagery in Gaza. I’ve witnessed the impact on the citizens of Lebanon and have been seriously affected, myself, with up to 100,000 people leaving the country. The economy tanking and thousands of cancellations. So it is in my interest and no doubt that of all Lebanese, but also the world, to understand why Israel wants to go to war with its northern neighbor?
Now let’s go through three key questions raised by this conundrum. Firstly, the legal grounds Israel claims it has to invade Lebanon. Secondly, what’s in it for Israel or this Israeli regime? And thirdly, can Israel win a war against Hezbollah?
Well, first, let’s look at the grounds for war that Israeli leaders’ claim justifies a full scale offensive on its northern border. Israel’s biggest gripe is the forced evacuation of up to 70,000 settlers from towns across the northern border of Israel, where Hezbollah has been lobbing its missiles and rockets. The pressure from the settler groups to return to their homes has been compounding, with many pushing the Israeli government to invade Lebanon and crush Hezbollah.
So far, the death toll in Israel from the Hezbollah attacks is 9 civilians and 11 soldiers. Whilst on the Lebanese side, Israeli attacks have killed around 240 Hezbollah soldiers and 40 civilians, with that number rising quickly with recent attacks. Last week, the United Nations held discussions on the growing conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, following a report submitted by UNIFIL, which reported that it had detected 9000 projectiles landing in UNIFIL controlled areas. Listen to this. So because of Hezbollah attacks, Israel claims it has United Nations backing, as outlined in the United Nations resolution 1701, to invade. It keeps quoting 1701 as if this resolution somehow gives Israel permission to destroy Lebanon and terrorize its civilians. Let’s look at what U.N. resolution 1701 specifically states. Resolution 1701 was passed by the UN Security Council on August 11th, 2006, after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Second Lebanon War, began on the 12th of July 2006, after Hezbollah fighters captured two Israeli soldiers on the border with Israel. The kidnaping, was to give Hezbollah leverage to negotiate the release of hundreds of Lebanese prisoners who have been held by Israel. Some for decades, very similar to Hamas’s October 7th hostage taking operation, to release thousands of their citizens held in Israeli jails. Instead of opening negotiations, Israel launched a violent retaliatory military operation that targeted the entire country, destroying billions of dollars of civilian infrastructure, including roads, bridges, utilities, the airport across the entire length and breadth of the country, and then proceeded to invade Lebanon. The “34-Day War” killed 1300 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 165 Israelis. It ended following global condemnation of Israel for its disproportionate response, the implementation of resolution 1701 by the UN Security Council. But most importantly, following a stern phone call by President “George Bush Junior” to Israeli Prime Minister “Ehud Olmert”, with Bush threatening to withdraw financial aid and military weapons to Israel if the onslaught didn’t end. Allegedly, the 2006 war ended minutes after that phone call was made by Bush Junior. Just on a side note, knowing this is the power the president of the United States of America has over Israeli leaders. One wonders why President Biden can’t pick up the phone and have the same conversation with Netanyahu right now to end the siege on Gaza. It is suspicious and brings into question Biden’s loyalties to his own country, America, and his own people versus Israel.
Anyway, back to the impending war on Lebanon. So, the 2006 war ended with resolution 1701, “1701” called for an end to the hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.
The withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, and most importantly, the disarmament of armed groups within Lebanon, including Hezbollah. But in addition to this, the resolution called for a “Hezbollah free zone”, south of the Litani River, and this is where the dispute is today. The Israeli government is adamant on Hezbollah withdrawing to the Litani, saying it threatens their security. And it is for this reason, it claims it is justified in invading Lebanon.
However, time and time again, in fact, at least 35,000 times Israel has breached the terms of resolution 1701. That’s right, 35,000 times. A statement released by the Lebanese caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, indicates that there have been over 35,000 breaches by the Israeli military, violating Lebanon’s air, land and sea sovereignty. And no, this isn’t only since October 7th. In an earlier report by UNIFIL published in 2019, it highlighted that these breaches occur daily. They reported that there was an average of 96.5 air violations monthly.
At the time of the report, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated: “I reiterate my condemnation of all violations of Lebanese sovereignty and my call for Israel to cease its violations of Lebanese airspace and to withdraw its forces from northern Ghajar and the adjacent area north of the Blue Line”.
So, for Israel to claim it has just cause under resolution 1701, to invade Lebanon is false and inaccurate. It isn’t just Hezbollah that is violating resolution 1701, but more profoundly, Israel’s tens of thousands of violations of the resolution in over nearly two decades that is of greater significance and must be condemned and stopped from weaponizing, resolution 1701, as false ground for invading Lebanon to allegedly push Hezbollah back.
Oh. And in addition, and in direct contravention of resolution 1701, Israel continues to occupy Lebanese territory and the “Shebaa Farms” area, which it seized in the 2006 war, as well as the Golan Heights from Syria. Just another breach, which no one is holding Israel accountable for. The next two points can be swiftly summarized. What’s in it for Israel or this Israeli regime? And can Israel win a war against Hezbollah
On point two. What’s in it for Israel? Well, firstly, there is a political advantage to Netanyahu and his far right messianic regime. Everyone knows that if the war ends in Gaza, Netanyahu and his government will be out of office, as Israeli media has pointed out as have countless international experts.
So, if he is forced to end the war in Gaza, and this is seemingly more likely as global opinion is firmly against him, he knows he’s gone. Which leads me to my final point on whether Israel could win a war with Hezbollah? And who is pushing for war between these two players?
Whilst we all agree Hezbollah should be disarmed and the Lebanese Army should be the only military force in Lebanon permitted to carry arms and defend Lebanese territory. This is not up for debate right now. In a recent article published in “Breaking Defense” magazine, retired Lebanese Armed Forces Brigadier General Naji Mlaeb said: “Hezbollah is ready for a larger conflict, but it doesn’t want it. While Israel wants a larger conflict, but is not ready to fight on two fronts.”
Even US intelligence officials in recent Senate committee hearings admitted that both Iran and Hezbollah did not want a war, but that Israel was inciting it. The question of whether Israel would win against Hezbollah has been raised and discussed, and no one believes Israel could defeat Hezbollah. It failed against them in 2006, and Hezbollah has had more than 18 years to build an even stronger and more sophisticated force to combat Israel if it invaded. One thing is very clear. Israel would inflict untold damage to Lebanon through airstrikes, even more than it did in 2006, and Hezbollah would retaliate against them and has missiles that could reach Tel Aviv. Thousands of civilians would be killed and injured. There is no question about that. But at the end of the day, Israel would not win. No one would win from a wider conflict in Lebanon, which is why everyone is trying to avert even Hezbollah and Iran. But it seems Israel is hell bent on more death and destruction and destabilizing the world. Israel is the greatest threat to international peace and security, and for this reason must be stopped.
